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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."