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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.